Chelsea? Would Ashley Cole REALy go there?

So lets try to make sense of this.

Ashley Cole is again being strongly rumoured to be moving away from Arsenal to pastures new. Some newspapers are even using the same sort of done deal language that typified much of the transfer frenzy around Thierry Henry these past 12 months.

What are we then to believe?

Let's look at all of the issues individually to see if we can put together a forest of truth from the trees of speculation.

This is a undoubtedly new era for Arsenal Football Club. As Ashley, Robert Pires and Thierry Henry famously sat on the Higbury pitch long after supporters and teammates had gone home, they must have discussed memories of trophies won, Spurs embarrassed (again), and lovely football played in their shared time with the club. It was surely a good-bye to an era for the Arsenal trioka but also the dawn of something new. There was of course a Champions League final on the immediate agenda, but perhaps the imminent opening of Emerites Stadium (which economists tell us will now position the club as the world's most profitable) had been more central in their thoughts.

For Pires, this new Emerites era was uncertain. He had already lost his place in the France side and the writing was on the wall for the 32 year old in how often he might be used at Emerites given Wenger's trust in Reyes, Hleb, Freddie, and sometimes Clichy of the left for the Arsenal. That he chose a two year contract with Villareal over the 12 months offered by the club is a pragmatic decision that likely masks Pires' understanding that his time of influence had passed. Rosicky's youth, pace and vision more than eases his loss... but all Gooners know that Bobby's elegance will sorely be missed.

Much has been made of Henry's decision to stay but the media inference that the defeat in the Paris made his decision for him may make the Spanish snub more palatable to Barce supporters but does not sit well with the admission from Henry himself that he told his teammates he would stay with Arsenal in his captains speach right before the final.

I could comment more.

But enough has been said.

Henry has stayed... as I always knew he would.

For Ashley Cole, the choices are much more complicated than those to be made by Pires or Henry. A younger man by some years, Cole can look forward to at least another five years of world class football. Unlike Henry, his next contract will likely not be his last. Indeed, Cole has widely been singled out as the best player in the world in his position and his pace, touch and vision have long been a hallmark of Arsenal's devestating left sided attack.

But last year he foolishly met with Chelsea.

And unfortunately, Cole still believes that he was left out to dry by Arsenal in a madness that followed the meeting. His legal appeals to the sanctions he suffered betray good sense and worryingly reveal a man with a serious chip on his shoulder. Arsene Wenger was able to quell some of the bad feeling last summer but still could only get Cole to sign a one year extension on his contract... although one with a new pay packet of £70k/week.

This means that Cole has 24 months remaining on his contract as of 1 July 2006.

This gives Cole considerable leverage in evoking the nightmare Bosman scenario which has lost Arsenal Wiltord, Edu, and Pires in three consecutive seasons. But it also gives Arsenal leverage in dealing with the vultures that are encircling the club.

And ensuring a good return should they wish to sell.

For me. Cole IS the best left back on earth. As an Arsenal supporter, in the past year I was lucky to see some of the pretenders to his throne play the club both domestically and in Europe. And none of Roberto Carlos, Zambrotta, Van Bronkhorst, Heinze, Del Horno, or Nuno Valente (just kidding!!!) can match the talent and effectiveness of Ashley Cole. Which duly makes him an attractive signing for some the biggest clubs in the world.

Chelsea met with him. So Kenyon and Mourinho thought enough of him to tap him up. But this week Mourinho claimed that Roberto Carlos was the best in his position in the world. This seems a strange means of attracting Ashley Cole to the club, moreso when you consider that Wayne Bridge has been told that he has a future at the Stamford Bridge and when its noted that Jose Mourniho tried to distance himself from Cole-gate but claiming the meeting was Peter Kenyon's idea.

There is also Del Horno, which if you think about the wages that he and Bridge are both on, pretty much makes them un-sellable to any but the biggest 5 or 6 clubs in the world (... most of which have leftbacks of a certain renown already... and all of which will likely want to outlay their transfer cash and wages budget elsewhere).

So is the Carlos link a ruse by the Brazilian's agent to leverage more money out of Real?

Perhaps.

But Mourinho tends to acquire the players he yaps about. His comments about Carlos were definitive to me. And likely to Ashley too. But that is not to say the Chelsea signing Roberto Carlos wont also have the desired domino effect of weakening Arsenal Football Club. Carlos leaving Madrid would obviously open up a spot of the Madrid roster for a left back which, even with the mooted Chelsea/Real exchange for Spanish International Del Horno, would leave Real Madrid in a position to chase another left back.

David Beckham is a strong example of English footballing success abroad. A friend of Ashley Cole, they both share a strong professional approach to football (but also dubious taste in partners). Madrid does feature a style of football that would attract a player of Cole's talent and if Madrid were to sign Sven as their new manager, a move to Real Madrid would both offer the excitement of a new league and challenge abroad, but also the familiarity of working with a manager who has long sung Cole's praises. This seems quite straightforward, then. Becks, plus Real Madrid, plus Sven equals Ashley joining the Spanish giants.

But its really not that simple.

This forgets the racist abuse that Ashley Cole suffered the last time he played with England at the Bernebau. It forgets the Spanish manager calling Henry a "black shit" to teammate Jose Antonio Reyes. It forgets the rampant racism directed at Samuel Eto'o in La Liga last season and the growing racism in Spanish football generally.

Another issue is what Ashley Cole might actually cost to transfer.

Yes, the Spanish club have spent loads of money over the past years of the Galatico era. But that was on the back of the riches the club made in selling its downtown Madrid training ground to developers.

That well has run dry.

Attracting Robinho and Baptista last summer overshadowed the book balancing exercises in selling Figo, Owen and Walter Samuel at the same time. So while Madrid may chase big summer signings this summer, it must also jettison several to stay in the black. And the most valuable of those jettisoned will need to be replaced, so when Zidane retires and if Raul or Ronaldo are sold there will be openings that Madrid will surely see as more important to fill than Roberto Carlos' departure. Simply put, would Madrid spend the requistite £12m-£16m for a left back when there are Zidane and Ronaldo sized holes elsewhere. Its food for thought.

A quick note about Wenger. Vieira's book waxes poetic about his relationship with the Arsenal gaffer in spite of the his acrimonious departure from the club. Indeed, Wenger maintains a great relationship with many of his former charges which manifests itself in things like Martin Keown helping out with the kids this winter or with Manu Petit training with the club earlier this past season. Surely, Ashley Cole will understand the impact that Wenger has had on his career. And that Wenger will still believe that he can make Ashley a better, more influential player in the side.

Upon making Henry captain, Wenger noted that his next choice would be Ashley Cole which at the time seemed more a statement of intent rather than one designed to win Cole's affection.

Would Cole wish to cut ties with Wenger? It didnt really work out for Overmars, Petit, Vieira and Anelka. More... food for thought.

In general, Arsenal are one of the only clubs in the world able to afford a £70k/week leftback. Even a leftback considered the best at his position with the best of his football still to come is not that attractive a signing at £12m-£16m.

He's a left back!

For those clubs who might be prepared to make the financial outlay necessary to acquire such an expensive player there will be tactics to consider in fitting Ashley Cole into their sides. Yes, Real Madrid may be prepared to unshackle an energetic Cole down their left... but would Mourinho?

And what of Arsenal FC?

My view is the Wenger will want to keep Cole at all costs. You simply cannot find the likes of Ashley Cole on the transfer market. Given the departures of Pires, Bergkamp, Edu, Vieira (and almost certainly Sol Campbell) in the past twelve months, Wenger will know that some old heads (even one only 25) will be needed next season to guide the teenaged likes of Walcott, Fabregas, Djourou and perhaps Lupoli in a very young side. That said, most Gooners have long heralded the eerily Cole-like talent of Gael Clichy. And Matty Flamini was immense at left back for Arsenal at the very highest level last season. There is also a young man called Armand Traore (the brother of... but dont hold that against him) who sources tell me is brimming with a talent very complimentary to Wenger-style football.

So... would the £12m-£16m be worth it?

Its difficult to say. Wenger built the current side in the strength of massive transfer fees for Anelka, Petit, Overmars and Vieira. But the best of those he acquired were the £500 000 signings of Fabregas and Toure. So clearly, money is not instrinic to Wenger's approach to team buidling. What IS clear however, is that if Cole should go, Arsenal would have three strong short term... middle term... and long term options already in the squad for his replacement.

From a personal point of view, like many Gooners the Cashley Cole/Chelsea tapping up scandal left a very bad taste in my mouth. The sterling example of Henry's loyalty of the club will hopefully send a message to the entire squad. And I hope that both players note the continued support they received last season from Gooners at Highbury. Many other clubs would have ripped into Ashley Cole for his seemingly dishonest dalliance with Chelsea and indeed into Henry for dangling the club by a thread... as captain... for the length of an entire season. In the end the decision was Henry's to make and I respect that. But that is not to say that the supporters at other clubs would not have ripped him for this.

Its worth a quick mention that Ashley Cole has an autobiography coming out this summer. Early word has it that it may have embarrassing Jaap Stam variety relvations about Arsenal Football Club. This early "word" has come from his publisher however in market that will see similar literature from Frank Lampard, Wayne Rooney and others in the England side. So let's all take this early "word" with a large grain of salt. They want to sell books. And scandal, REAL or imagined is an excellent way to do this.

Finally.. I think the bottom line is this.

Do I want Ashley Cole to stay?

Yes.

But will I be gutted if he goes?

No.

Do I think he will stay?

Yes.